Prelims1
Middleweight
Dan Miller vs Trevor Smith
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dan Miller
Trevor Smith
63%
37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
14-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-11
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miller: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 51 sig / 1 TD
Dan Miller
Trevor Smith
28
Sig strikes landed
36
67
Sig strikes attempted
66
49
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dan Miller
14-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
15-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—