Prelims1
Welterweight
George Sullivan vs Dominic Waters
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
George Sullivan
Dominic Waters
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
79"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sullivan: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Waters: 13 sig / 5 TD
George Sullivan
Dominic Waters
44
Sig strikes landed
41
105
Sig strikes attempted
97
66
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
201s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
George Sullivan
"The Silencer"
17-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
Blue corner
Dominic Waters
"Sho Nuff"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26