Back to The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Main Welterweight

Michael Graves vs Vicente Luque

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Michael Graves
Vicente Luque
41% 59%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
24
Age
Δ 1y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Graves: 27 sig / 7 TD · Luque: 28 sig / 0 TD
Michael Graves
Vicente Luque
31
Sig strikes landed
40
71
Sig strikes attempted
84
68
Total strikes landed
58
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Michael Graves

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Vicente Luque

"The Silent Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24