Main
Welterweight
Jorge Masvidal vs Cezar Ferreira
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
Cezar Ferreira
83%
17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
31
Age
Δ 0y
30
35-18
Career record
Δ 7 pp
13-9
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Masvidal: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferreira: 7 sig / 1 TD
Jorge Masvidal
Cezar Ferreira
37
Sig strikes landed
28
69
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
165s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
L1
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
13-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—