Back to The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Main Welterweight

Kamaru Usman vs Hayder Hassan

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Hayder Hassan
95% 5%
Why
28
Age
Δ 5y
33

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Usman: 15 sig / 6 TD · Hassan: 3 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Hayder Hassan
54
Sig strikes landed
39
114
Sig strikes attempted
99
76
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
186s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Kamaru Usman

"The Nigerian Nightmare"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
Blue corner

Hayder Hassan

"Hulk"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
33