Main
Welterweight
Jake Ellenberger vs Stephen Thompson
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Stephen Thompson
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
32-15
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-9-1
W1
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ellenberger: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Thompson: 20 sig / 1 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Stephen Thompson
32
Sig strikes landed
41
71
Sig strikes attempted
83
44
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
116s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W4
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—