Prelims2
Flyweight
Darrell Montague vs Willie Gates
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Darrell Montague
Willie Gates
58%
42%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
13-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-8
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Montague: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Gates: 19 sig / 0 TD
Darrell Montague
Willie Gates
31
Sig strikes landed
33
72
Sig strikes attempted
79
42
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
124s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Darrell Montague
"Mongoose"
13-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
L1
Willie Gates
12-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—