Back to The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Main Women's Strawweight

Angela Magana vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Angela Magana
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
49% 51%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
62"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Magana: 8 sig / 1 TD · Waterson-Gomez: 47 sig / 3 TD
Angela Magana
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
42
Sig strikes landed
49
108
Sig strikes attempted
106
63
Total strikes landed
84
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Angela Magana

"Your Majesty"
11-10
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
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Blue corner

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

"The Karate Hottie"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30