Main
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Lorenz Larkin
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero
·Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Lorenz Larkin
80%
20%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
29
Age
29
32-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-6
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ponzinibbio: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Larkin: 64 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Lorenz Larkin
36
Sig strikes landed
30
93
Sig strikes attempted
77
46
Total strikes landed
31
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
52s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
32-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W1
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
19-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—