Main
Middleweight
Lyoto Machida vs Yoel Romero
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero
·Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
Yoel Romero
76%
24%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
37
Age
Δ 1y
38
24-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
W5
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Machida: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Romero: 42 sig / 1 TD
Lyoto Machida
Yoel Romero
30
Sig strikes landed
31
69
Sig strikes attempted
63
38
Total strikes landed
43
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
61s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
Blue corner
W5
Yoel Romero
"Soldier of God"
14-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—