Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Quinn
Waylon Lowe
72%
28%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Quinn: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Lowe: 13 sig / 2 TD
Ryan Quinn
Waylon Lowe
45
Sig strikes landed
46
99
Sig strikes attempted
101
59
Total strikes landed
62
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ryan Quinn
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Blue corner
Waylon Lowe
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35