Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dean Hancock
Alex Dunworth
80%
20%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hancock: 63 sig / 1 TD ·
Dunworth: 14 sig / 0 TD
Dean Hancock
Alex Dunworth
29
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
67
54
Total strikes landed
35
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
142s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
48%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dean Hancock
"The Hammer"
3-1
Career record
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 134: The British Invas…
—
Blue corner
Alex Dunworth
0-0
Career record
Height
68"