Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Page
Rudy Bears
95%
5%
Why
28
Age
Δ 8y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Page: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Bears: 2 sig / 0 TD
Michael Page
Rudy Bears
51
Sig strikes landed
28
96
Sig strikes attempted
63
73
Total strikes landed
46
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
180s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Michael Page
"Venom"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
Blue corner
Rudy Bears
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37