Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Blair Tugman
Kin Moy
75%
25%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Tugman: 11 sig / 10 TD ·
Moy: 13 sig / 0 TD
Blair Tugman
Kin Moy
46
Sig strikes landed
37
103
Sig strikes attempted
95
57
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.6
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
31s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Blair Tugman
11-6
Career record
Height
72"
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 134: The British Invas…
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Blue corner
Kin Moy
"Kong"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"