Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Parker Porter
Eric Bedard
87%
13%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Porter: 67 sig / 1 TD ·
Bedard: 50 sig / 0 TD
Parker Porter
Eric Bedard
41
Sig strikes landed
37
99
Sig strikes attempted
97
59
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Parker Porter
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Eric Bedard
"Lucky Strikes"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
31