Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Gian Villante vs Tom Lawlor
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Gian Villante
Tom Lawlor
57%
43%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
18-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-6
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Villante: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Lawlor: 22 sig / 0 TD
Gian Villante
Tom Lawlor
43
Sig strikes landed
39
84
Sig strikes attempted
78
57
Total strikes landed
44
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.8
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
86s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gian Villante
18-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W1
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
11-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—