Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Danny Castillo
84%
16%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
39-20
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-11
L2
Current streak
L2
14
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Miller: 45 sig / 2 TD ·
Castillo: 35 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Danny Castillo
34
Sig strikes landed
30
71
Sig strikes attempted
66
49
Total strikes landed
47
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
91s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
Blue corner
L2
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—