Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derek Bohi
Frederick Brown
81%
19%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Derek Bohi
Frederick Brown
41
Sig strikes landed
39
93
Sig strikes attempted
92
55
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
134s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Derek Bohi
"Marshmallow"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Blue corner
Frederick Brown
0-0
Career record
Height
72"