Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jeimeson Saudino
Aaron Ely
81%
19%
Why
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Saudino: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Ely: 5 sig / 1 TD
Jeimeson Saudino
Aaron Ely
45
Sig strikes landed
44
94
Sig strikes attempted
96
58
Total strikes landed
58
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jeimeson Saudino
"The Minion"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
24
Blue corner
Aaron Ely
"The Cyborg"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
26