Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Curran
Emmanuel Sanchez
76%
24%
Why
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
22-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-3
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Curran: 80 sig / 4 TD ·
Sanchez: 75 sig / 0 TD
Pat Curran
Emmanuel Sanchez
63
Sig strikes landed
72
171
Sig strikes attempted
181
71
Total strikes landed
92
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
44s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Pat Curran
"Paddy Mike"
22-8
Career record
Height
69"
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlem…
—
Blue corner
W1
Emmanuel Sanchez
"El Matador"
16-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 135: Warren vs. Galvao
—