Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Gallemore
Augusto Sakai
64%
36%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gallemore: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Sakai: 60 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Gallemore
Augusto Sakai
42
Sig strikes landed
49
97
Sig strikes attempted
101
54
Total strikes landed
67
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
87s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Daniel Gallemore
"Big Kansas"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Blue corner
Augusto Sakai
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24