Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bubba Jenkins
Joe Wilk
83%
17%
Why
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Jenkins: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Wilk: 6 sig / 0 TD
Bubba Jenkins
Joe Wilk
35
Sig strikes landed
43
86
Sig strikes attempted
92
60
Total strikes landed
63
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bubba Jenkins
"The Highlight Kid"
11-5
Career record
Height
67"
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 132: Pitbull vs. Straus
—
Blue corner
Joe Wilk
"The Nose"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Age
33