Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Huddleston
Javy Ayala
74%
26%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Huddleston: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Ayala: 1 sig / 0 TD
Alex Huddleston
Javy Ayala
44
Sig strikes landed
44
98
Sig strikes attempted
95
59
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alex Huddleston
"The Shaved Gorilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
79"
Age
29
Blue corner
Javy Ayala
"Eye Candy"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
27