Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dave Rickels
John Alessio
82%
18%
Why
26
Age
Δ 10y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Rickels: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Alessio: 2 sig / 0 TD
Dave Rickels
John Alessio
50
Sig strikes landed
40
115
Sig strikes attempted
101
67
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dave Rickels
"The Caveman"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
27
Blue corner
John Alessio
"The Natural"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36