Main
Women's Bantamweight
Holly Holm vs Marion Reneau
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
·Pechanga Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Holly Holm
Marion Reneau
76%
24%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
34
Age
Δ 4y
38
16-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
10-8-1
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holm: 65 sig / 1 TD ·
Reneau: 26 sig / 0 TD
Holly Holm
Marion Reneau
47
Sig strikes landed
46
158
Sig strikes attempted
122
62
Total strikes landed
60
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
46s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Holly Holm
"The Preacher's Daughter"
16-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
Blue corner
W2
Marion Reneau
"The Belizean Bruiser"
10-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—