Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Josh Thomson
Tony Ferguson
45%
55%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
37
Age
Δ 5y
31
22-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
27-11
L2
Current streak
W5
3
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thomson: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Ferguson: 83 sig / 0 TD
Josh Thomson
Tony Ferguson
34
Sig strikes landed
48
83
Sig strikes attempted
110
43
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
158s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
22-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W5
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—