Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Lee
James Moontasri
77%
23%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
23
Age
Δ 4y
27
19-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
10-5
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lee: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Moontasri: 6 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Lee
James Moontasri
49
Sig strikes landed
36
110
Sig strikes attempted
86
85
Total strikes landed
58
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.6
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
194s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
Blue corner
W1
James Moontasri
"Moon Walker"
10-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—