Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alan Jouban
Matt Dwyer
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
18-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-4
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jouban: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Dwyer: 29 sig / 0 TD
Alan Jouban
Matt Dwyer
34
Sig strikes landed
27
73
Sig strikes attempted
74
40
Total strikes landed
33
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
93s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
18-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Dwyer
10-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—