Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Frank Mir
Todd Duffee
47%
53%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
19-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mir: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Duffee: 9 sig / 0 TD
Frank Mir
Todd Duffee
23
Sig strikes landed
29
49
Sig strikes attempted
60
29
Total strikes landed
47
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
91s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
76%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Frank Mir
19-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W2
Todd Duffee
10-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—