Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Peter Sobotta
Steve Kennedy
50%
50%
Why
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sobotta: 6 sig / 2 TD ·
Kennedy: 3 sig / 0 TD
Peter Sobotta
Steve Kennedy
32
Sig strikes landed
38
85
Sig strikes attempted
75
56
Total strikes landed
57
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
246s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Peter Sobotta
18-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
Steve Kennedy
"The Steamrolla"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32