Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dennis Siver
Tatsuya Kawajiri
28%
72%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
36
Age
Δ 1y
37
23-12
Career record
Δ 6 pp
36-12-2
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Siver: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Kawajiri: 22 sig / 4 TD
Dennis Siver
Tatsuya Kawajiri
42
Sig strikes landed
37
103
Sig strikes attempted
87
64
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
6.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
226s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dennis Siver
23-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
36-12-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—