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Makwan Amirkhani vs Masio Fullen

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne ·O2 World
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Makwan Amirkhani
Masio Fullen
71% 29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
18-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Amirkhani: 0 sig / 1 TD · Fullen: 1 sig / 0 TD
Makwan Amirkhani
Masio Fullen
36
Sig strikes landed
22
85
Sig strikes attempted
64
41
Total strikes landed
30
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
300s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Makwan Amirkhani

"Mr. Finland"
18-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
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Blue corner
W1

Masio Fullen

"Lobo"
12-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
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