Prelims1
Lightweight
Mairbek Taisumov vs Alan Patrick
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne
·O2 World
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mairbek Taisumov
Alan Patrick
82%
18%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
28-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-4
W2
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Taisumov: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Patrick: 17 sig / 0 TD
Mairbek Taisumov
Alan Patrick
29
Sig strikes landed
17
69
Sig strikes attempted
73
33
Total strikes landed
35
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
71s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mairbek Taisumov
"Beckan"
28-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—
Blue corner
W2
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
16-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—