Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alan Omer
Arnold Allen
43%
57%
Why
27
Age
Δ 5y
21
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Omer: 35 sig / 2 TD ·
Allen: 23 sig / 1 TD
Alan Omer
Arnold Allen
42
Sig strikes landed
40
82
Sig strikes attempted
85
70
Total strikes landed
58
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
196s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alan Omer
20-6
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
Blue corner
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21