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Prelims1 Featherweight

Niklas Backstrom vs Noad Lahat

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne ·O2 World
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Niklas Backstrom
Noad Lahat
63% 37%
Why
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
11-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
12-2
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Backstrom: 11 sig / 4 TD · Lahat: 62 sig / 1 TD
Niklas Backstrom
Noad Lahat
25
Sig strikes landed
22
48
Sig strikes attempted
43
43
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
35%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Niklas Backstrom

11-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
Blue corner
W1

Noad Lahat

"Neo"
12-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—