Back to UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne
🏆 Title fight Main Women's Strawweight

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Jessica Penne

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne ·O2 World
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Jessica Penne
75% 25%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
28
Age
Δ 5y
32
17-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
15-9
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Jedrzejczyk: 126 sig / 0 TD · Penne: 25 sig / 0 TD
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Jessica Penne
65
Sig strikes landed
47
147
Sig strikes attempted
126
92
Total strikes landed
71
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
69s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
Blue corner
W1

Jessica Penne

15-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—