Prelims1
Featherweight
Lucas Martins vs Mirsad Bektic
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
·Goiania Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Lucas Martins
Mirsad Bektic
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
19-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
14-4
L1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Martins: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Bektic: 39 sig / 3 TD
Lucas Martins
Mirsad Bektic
27
Sig strikes landed
29
59
Sig strikes attempted
58
41
Total strikes landed
48
0.4
Takedowns landed
2.6
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
287s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lucas Martins
"Mineiro"
19-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
W2
Mirsad Bektic
14-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—