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Prelims1 Welterweight

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Nicolas Dalby

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves ·Goiania Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Nicolas Dalby
52% 48%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Zaleski dos Santos: 57 sig / 0 TD · Dalby: 41 sig / 6 TD
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Nicolas Dalby
36
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
81
52
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

"Capoeira"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Nicolas Dalby

"Lokomotivo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31