Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Wilson Reis
58%
42%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
24-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-10
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Formiga: 21 sig / 4 TD ·
Reis: 28 sig / 0 TD
Jussier Formiga
Wilson Reis
14
Sig strikes landed
23
52
Sig strikes attempted
65
35
Total strikes landed
47
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.7
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
199s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jussier Formiga
24-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
W2
Wilson Reis
24-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—