Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
KJ Noons
Alex Oliveira
33%
67%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
13-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
22-13-1
W2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Noons: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 3 sig / 3 TD
KJ Noons
Alex Oliveira
36
Sig strikes landed
39
91
Sig strikes attempted
110
49
Total strikes landed
55
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.5
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
45s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
KJ Noons
"King"
13-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22-13-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—