Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
Charles Oliveira
32%
68%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
31-12-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
38-11
W1
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Lentz: 37 sig / 2 TD ·
Oliveira: 64 sig / 1 TD
Nik Lentz
Charles Oliveira
32
Sig strikes landed
28
58
Sig strikes attempted
56
57
Total strikes landed
42
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
252s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
Blue corner
W3
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—