Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Thiago Alves
81%
19%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
32-15
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-15
L1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Condit: 75 sig / 2 TD ·
Alves: 34 sig / 0 TD
Carlos Condit
Thiago Alves
68
Sig strikes landed
62
169
Sig strikes attempted
136
85
Total strikes landed
76
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
79s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32-15
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W2
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
24-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—