Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Glaico Franca Moreira
Fernando Bruno
85%
15%
Why
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Franca Moreira: 23 sig / 4 TD ·
Bruno: 20 sig / 2 TD
Glaico Franca Moreira
Fernando Bruno
49
Sig strikes landed
42
110
Sig strikes attempted
94
67
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Glaico Franca Moreira
"Nego"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Fernando Bruno
"Acougueiro"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Age
33