Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Rogerio Nogueira
71%
29%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
34
Age
Δ 6y
39
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
23-11
L2
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rua: 53 sig / 2 TD ·
Nogueira: 63 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Rogerio Nogueira
33
Sig strikes landed
30
70
Sig strikes attempted
70
45
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—