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Main Women's Strawweight

Claudia Gadelha vs Jessica Aguilar

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia ·Farmasi Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Claudia Gadelha
Jessica Aguilar
70% 30%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 0"
63"
27
Age
Δ 7y
33
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gadelha: 111 sig / 4 TD · Aguilar: 70 sig / 0 TD
Claudia Gadelha
Jessica Aguilar
54
Sig strikes landed
42
156
Sig strikes attempted
90
96
Total strikes landed
72
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
250s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Claudia Gadelha

"Claudinha"
18-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
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Blue corner

Jessica Aguilar

"Jag"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33