Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Neil Magny
39%
61%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
80"
38
Age
Δ 10y
28
29-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
32-15
W2
Current streak
W7
14
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Maia: 13 sig / 2 TD ·
Magny: 0 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Neil Magny
24
Sig strikes landed
42
57
Sig strikes attempted
88
49
Total strikes landed
63
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
262s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
Blue corner
W7
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—