Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Rafael Cavalcante vs Patrick Cummins
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rafael Cavalcante
Patrick Cummins
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
35
Age
Δ 1y
35
12-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
10-8
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cavalcante: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Cummins: 49 sig / 8 TD
Rafael Cavalcante
Patrick Cummins
23
Sig strikes landed
34
47
Sig strikes attempted
62
41
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
72s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafael Cavalcante
"Feijao"
12-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
L1
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
10-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—