Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Nordine Taleb
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
25
Age
Δ 10y
34
16-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-7
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Alves: 17 sig / 2 TD ·
Taleb: 17 sig / 0 TD
Warlley Alves
Nordine Taleb
28
Sig strikes landed
31
61
Sig strikes attempted
59
48
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
153s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Warlley Alves
16-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W3
Nordine Taleb
16-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—