Main
Heavyweight
Stefan Struve vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
·Farmasi Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
69%
31%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 8"
77"
27
Age
Δ 12y
39
33-14
Career record
Δ 4 pp
34-11-1
L2
Current streak
L2
10
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Struve: 93 sig / 0 TD ·
Nogueira: 59 sig / 1 TD
Stefan Struve
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
38
Sig strikes landed
21
61
Sig strikes attempted
37
39
Total strikes landed
39
0.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
-0.4
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
20s
Control time
220s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
33-14
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
Blue corner
L2
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—