Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Garrett Gross
Chris Heatherly
56%
44%
Why
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gross: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Heatherly: 12 sig / 3 TD
Garrett Gross
Chris Heatherly
36
Sig strikes landed
36
77
Sig strikes attempted
77
51
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Garrett Gross
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Chris Heatherly
"Stump"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28